State Spotlight: Ohio’s Senior Foreclosure Bill — How It Could Reorder Local Housing Risk

Hook: Why H.B. 443 Matters to Investors, Tax Filers and County Finance Teams Right Now

Ohio's proposed H.B. 443, the Senior Protection from Foreclosure Act, arrives at a time when investors need clear signals on policy risk, counties need reliable revenue forecasts, and senior homeowners need predictability. With national foreclosure filings up 14 percent in 2025 and Ohio ranked sixth in foreclosure rates in late 2025, this single bill could materially reorder local housing risk, alter tax collection timing, and shrink the pool of properties available to foreclosure investors.

Quick Take

H.B. 443 would bar county enforcement of property tax foreclosures on owner occupied homes owned by homeowners age 65 and older or qualifying surviving spouses when the home is valued below 750,000 and the owner makes a monthly payment toward outstanding taxes. That codification of informal county practices could reduce senior-targeted foreclosure inventories, shift administrative burdens back to county treasurers, and force investors and municipal revenue managers to rethink pricing, cash flow assumptions, and risk exposure.

Background and Context

Two Republican Ohio representatives introduced H.B. 443 after a 2025 period of sharp attention on property tax spikes and rising delinquencies. Supporters say many counties already extend informal payment plans to older residents, and the bill would simply standardize protections statewide. The timing is significant: ATTOM reported a 14 percent rise in U.S. foreclosure filings in 2025, and Ohio was among the states with the higher county-level foreclosure activity by October 2025.

What the bill does, in plain terms

• Prohibits counties from enforcing property tax foreclosures against owner-occupied homes owned by seniors 65 and older, or qualifying surviving spouses, if the property value is under 750,000 and the owner is making a monthly payment toward taxes.
• Codifies an eligibility framework and creates a legal baseline for counties that already run informal payment plans and deferrals.
• Shifts enforcement discretion from county treasurers to statutory compliance, which will affect how delinquencies are categorized and when they reach tax sale status.

Why This Changes the Risk Map

The policy matters to three groups in distinct ways:

• Counties and municipalities will see timing shifts in collections and new administrative burdens to verify eligibility and manage ongoing payment plans.
• Real estate and tax lien investors will likely see lower volumes of senior-owned properties entering tax sales, reducing inventory particularly in markets with older homeowner concentrations.
• Senior homeowners and advocates gain more breathing room and legal protections against tax-related forced sales, which stabilizes neighborhoods but complicates cash flow for jurisdictions that had relied on sale proceeds to close fiscal gaps.

Fiscal Impact on Counties: What to Model

The fiscal impact is not uniform. County budgets are built on recurring property tax collections, not on auction proceeds. But the details matter. Here are the channels through which H.B. 443 would affect county finances and revenue forecasting.

1. Timing and cash flow

Foreclosure sales convert long-term delinquencies into immediate cash that counties use to retire unpaid taxes, legal costs and sometimes to seed collections shortfalls. By preventing enforcement on eligible senior-occupied homes, counties will see a later conversion of arrears to cash, prolonging outstanding receivables and altering intra-year revenue timing. For counties with tight operating margins, the timing shift could create short-term liquidity pressure.

2. Administrative and verification costs

H.B. 443 requires counties to verify age, occupancy and valuation thresholds and to document ongoing monthly payments. That creates new front-line work for treasurers and auditors and may require software updates to tax collection systems. Expect one-off implementation costs and higher recurring staffing or vendor contracts.

3. Reduced tax sale proceeds and ancillary fees

While foreclosure sale proceeds are typically a small share of total property tax receipts, they often cover costly legal and administrative expenses. The immediate effect is a reduction in those proceeds and related fees from sheriff sales. Counties will need to adjust sinking fund projections and may temporarily increase transfers from general reserves.

4. Behavioral effect on payment compliance

One countervailing force is improved compliance. Formalizing a monthly payment requirement and codifying protections could encourage more seniors to engage with payment plans, reducing chronic delinquency rates over time. Modeling should therefore include both a near-term cash timing shock and a medium-term reduction in default incidence.

5. Real-world illustrative scenarios

Use scenario models rather than precise forecasts. For a mid-sized Ohio county with 250,000 parcels and a senior homeownership share of 25 percent, an estimated 0.5 to 1.5 percent of parcels could be eligible and delinquent at any one time. That translates into a modest impact on total tax revenues but a disproportionate impact on the tax sale pipeline and courthouse sale income. For large urban counties with aging suburbs, the pipeline impact is larger and should be stress-tested against a high-delinquency scenario.

How Foreclosure Investors Need to Recalibrate

Investors who build models on predictable tax sale pipelines must absorb several policy-driven shifts. H.B. 443 reduces supply, raises legal and reputational risk, and lengthens cash conversion cycles for senior-owned, owner-occupied parcels. Here is how strategies will change.

Immediate tactical moves for investors

• Reprice risk models to exclude or discount senior-owner pools in counties that adopt H.B. 443 protections.
• Shift acquisition strategies toward non-owner-occupied and commercial tax delinquencies, which are unaffected by the bill.
• Diversify geographically into states or counties without similar senior protections, while accounting for reputational and political risk.
• Increase emphasis on early-stage intervention: buying pre-foreclosure liens, offering relief-focused acquisitions, or purchasing loan servicing rights to negotiate solutions.

Advanced strategic adjustments

Institutional investors should consider more structural responses:

• Invest in legal and compliance teams to screen for eligibility and avoid litigated sales that can erode returns.
• Form public private partnerships with counties to help administer payment plans in exchange for tax credit-like instruments or revenue-sharing arrangements.
• Develop a distressed rental conversion pipeline: when sales do occur elsewhere, convert acquired homes into stabilized rental product, which is increasingly valuable in 2026 as rental demand remains robust in many Ohio metros.

Municipal Revenue Profiles: Winners and Losers

H.B. 443 will have differential effects across Ohio counties based on demographics, tax base composition and fiscal resilience.

Potential winners

• Counties with large senior populations that already had robust payment plan programs may benefit from fewer costly litigated foreclosures and improved neighborhood stability, which protects long-term tax base value.
• Municipalities with diverse revenue sources and healthy reserves experience the policy as a stabilization measure that reduces displacement and preserves property values.

Potential losers

• Smaller counties heavily reliant on tax sale proceeds to manage arrearages could face short-term revenue gaps and higher borrowing costs if they tap reserves or issue notes to smooth cash flow.
• Counties with older tax administration systems could see disproportionate implementation costs and delays in collections.

Practical Advice: County Finance Teams

Counties should move proactively. Below are practical steps to insulate budgets and improve outcomes.

1. Run a rapid inventory analysis of owner-occupied parcels owned by seniors, identify delinquency staging, and quantify the value at risk under H.B. 443. Produce central, county-level dashboards to track eligibility and outstanding balances.
2. Stress-test cash flows assuming different compliance rates for monthly payments. Model a conservative scenario where 30 percent of eligible delinquent seniors enroll in payment plans and a more aggressive scenario with 70 percent enrollment.
3. Automate verification by integrating age and ownership data streams from the auditor, assessor and social services databases to reduce manual work and errors.
4. Create targeted outreach and counseling for at-risk seniors. Investments in outreach reduce future delinquencies and are less costly than litigation.
5. Plan for one-off budget adjustments by identifying reserve buffers and short-term borrowing options to smooth the transition period.

Practical Advice: Investors and Asset Managers

Investors should adopt a playbook oriented around policy sensitivity.

1. Map regulatory risk across counties. Use demographic overlays to estimate the share of senior-owner-occupied homes in the tax sale pipeline and reduce allocation to high-exposure jurisdictions.
2. Negotiate earlier in the tax lifecycle. Pre-foreclosure acquisition and loan workouts capture upside that classic tax sale strategies may miss when inventories shrink.
3. Price in longer hold periods and administrative costs. With protections in place, a delinquent senior parcel may take longer to resolve; returns should be adjusted accordingly.
4. Develop socially responsible exit strategies that include options such as permanent affordable housing conversions, which can unlock municipal incentives and reduce political pushback.

Tax Filers, Advisers and Senior Advocates: Actionable Steps

• Advise seniors to document residency, file applicable exemptions, and keep records of any payment agreements with county treasurers.
• Encourage early engagement with county offices; H.B. 443 favors demonstrated monthly payments, so a formal, documented plan is essential.
• Work with local legal aid to establish standardized forms and notices so eligible homeowners can claim protections without costly attorneys fees.

What to Watch in 2026

Several developments will determine the real-world impact of H.B. 443 through 2026:

• Whether the Ohio legislature passes H.B. 443 intact, or with amendments that change eligibility thresholds or administrative requirements.
• County implementation timelines and the speed at which treasurers update systems to verify eligibility and track monthly payments.
• Any state-level financial support or guidance for counties absorbing implementation costs, such as grant programs or temporary revenue transfers.
• Legal challenges from creditors, lien purchasers, or municipal stakeholders if the law is seen to alter contractual or statutory rights retroactively.

Measuring Impact: Metrics to Monitor

Stakeholders should track a compact set of metrics to evaluate H.B. 443 effects:

• Number of senior-owner-occupied properties in arrears by county
• Share of delinquent senior properties entering tax sale each quarter
• Average days from delinquency to resolution for senior properties versus non-senior properties
• Administrative cost per prevented foreclosure
• County reserve drawdowns attributed to timing shifts in tax collections

Case Study: Two Hypothetical Counties

Contrast illustrates the bill's uneven effects.

County A: Large suburban county with robust reserves

Implements verification software quickly, rolls out counseling, sees modest short-term cash timing issues but reduces neighborhood turnover. Over two years, delinquencies fall as seniors enroll in payment plans. Net fiscal effect: small implementation cost, longer-term stabilization of the tax base.

County B: Small rural county with tight budget

Has limited staff and legacy systems. H.B. 443 forces postponement of tax sales that the county relied on to close year-end gaps. County B borrows short-term and delays capital projects. Net fiscal effect: constrained liquidity and potential credit pressure unless state assistance arrives.

Conclusion and Actionable Takeaways

H.B. 443 is designed to protect a vulnerable class of homeowners, and it accomplishes that goal while creating measurable policy risk for investors and short-term operational strain for some counties. The law changes the composition of tax sale inventories and lengthens resolution timelines for eligible properties, forcing investors to recalibrate pricing and counties to modernize administration. But the bill also creates an opportunity: those counties and investors that move early to redesign workflows, build partnerships, and invest in outreach will reduce costs, protect neighborhoods, and capture value in a more predictable, socially sustainable market.

Practical Next Steps Checklist

• County treasurers: run an eligibility inventory and stress-test revenue scenarios for 2026 and 2027.
• Investors: reweight portfolios and increase credit for policy risk in Ohio markets.
• Tax advisers: compile documentation checklists for seniors to claim protections under H.B. 443.
• Bond analysts: flag counties with high senior homeownership and limited reserves as watch-list credits.

Data-driven planning and early stakeholder engagement will determine whether H.B. 443 becomes a stabilizer for Ohio communities or a near-term fiscal headache for cash-strapped counties.

Call to Action

For county finance officers, investors and advisers who need county-level impact models, our 2026 Ohio County Foreclosure Risk Kit provides scenario templates, an eligibility mapping tool and recommended legal language for payment plans. Subscribe to our regional reports or contact our research desk to get the model and a tailored briefing for your county or portfolio.

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